Best of 2023: China – Delving into the domestic landscape
BEST OF 2023:
CHINA– DELVING INTO THE DOMESTIC LANDSCAPE
1 January 2024
2023 was a year marked by both progress and challenges for China. Its economy exhibited a strong recovery thanks to the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, and urbanisation has continued as millions move from rural to urban areas in search of better opportunities.
At the same time, the country must grapple with persistent income inequality, rising unemployment, and the rise of Chinese refugees to the looming real estate crisis, even as the Party remains focused on its relentless pursuit of military modernisation.
We review some of our most insightful analyses of key issues across China’s domestic political and policy landscape.
INCONVENIENT TRUTH — YOUNG AND UNEMPLOYED IN CHINA
WRITTEN BY ANAND P. KRISHNAN, FELLOW AT THE CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR HIMALAYAN STUDIES, SHIV NADAR INSTITUTION OF EMINENCE (DELHI-NCR), AND A VISITING ASSOCIATE FELLOW AT THE INSTITUTE OF CHINESE STUDIES, DELHI
Krishnan explores the unemployment crisis in China and the Party-state’s unwillingness to acknowledge the extent of the problem. Worse yet, the Party’s crackdown on the private sector is increasing regulatory uncertainty and contributing to joblessness. Pointing to the structural factors underlying China’s economic woes, Krishnan argues that the country needs meaningful fiscal reforms but observes that “differences within the CPC, such as competing interests of different interest groups and local officials, constrain policy solutions”.
RUNNING FROM CHINA: CHINA’S YOUTH DREAM OF LEAVING
WRITTEN BY DR FRANZISKA PLÜMMER, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF EUROPE-CHINA RELATIONS AT THE DEPARTMENT OF EUROPEAN STUDIES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF AMSTERDAM
Here, Plümmer explains the phenomenon of Chinese refugees — about 15,000 PRC nationals have been applying for asylum abroad each year since Xi Jinping took office in 2012. Post COVID-19, frustration is on the rise; Plümmer notes “many people got angry with both central and local governments and saw their individual life plans ruined”. Facing brain drain and demographic change, policymakers and business leaders are trying to incentivise Chinese students to return, and the government is enacting anti-emigration rules. However, like Krishnan, Plümmer echoes the importance of designing comprehensive and inclusive policies.
CHINA’S REAL ESTATE CRISIS IS STILL A POLITICAL DANGER
WRITTEN BY DR ARAVIND YELERY, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR AT JAWAHARLAL NEHRU UNIVERSITY, NEW DELHI
Yelery takes a closer look at the real estate crisis in China — a topic that grabbed attention worldwide last year. Tracing policies and societal expectations that have contributed to this crisis, the author observes that “the growth of the cities and urban spaces across China was founded on significant systemic risks of excess borrowing”. The ballooning debt and looming risk of bankruptcy could prove catastrophic for not only China’s economy but also global financial stability, warns Yelery. But the Party’s policies are making it more difficult for developers to find solutions and uncertainty is likely to continue.
TEN-YEAR REVIEW OF CHINA’S DEFENCE BUDGET: STEADILY TOWARD MODERNISATION
WRITTEN BY FEI SU, RESEARCHER AT THE CHINA AND ASIA SECURITY PROGRAMME, AND XIAO LIANG, RESEARCH ASSISTANT AT THE MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND ARMS PRODUCTION PROGRAMME, AT STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Unlike social and economic policies, the Party’s efforts at military modernisation seem to have been more successful. Here, Fei and Xiao review China’s defence spending, which has mirrored GDP growth over the past few decades. Indeed, the authors observe a decline in the growth rate of military spending as China’s economic growth has slowed down since the 2010s. Nonetheless, with building a ‘world-class’ military a key goal of the Party, Fei and Xiao suggest that “[e]ven in the face of challenging global economic conditions, this growth is likely to persist as a long-term trend”.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writers and do not necessarily represent that of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.
Image credit: Zhang Kaiyv/Unsplash.